Eurasia Group is proud to announce the release of
The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall,
by Eurasia Group president, Dr. Ian Bremmer, published by Simon & Schuster.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact
Elizabeth A. Hayes, Director of Publicity
Simon & Schuster
212.698.7527 / Elizabeth.Hayes@SimonandSchuster.com
Julia Prosser, Publicist
Simon & Schuster
212.698.7529 / Julia.Prosser@SimonandSchuster.com
THE J CURVE:
A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall
“A shrewd and timely take on a continual dilemma of international relations.”
– Kirkus Reviews
“The J-Curve provides both policymakers and business strategists with an innovative set of conceptual tools for understanding political risk in rapidly changing societies, tools that integrate political, economic, and security perspectives in new and creative ways.”
– Francis Fukuyama, author of "The End of History and the Last Man"
The world isn't flat...it's j curved. North Korea, Iran, China, India...Ian Bremmer's imaginative new book explains how countries rise and fall depending on where they sit on the curve. U.S. policy-makers have long sought to manage threats to America’s national interests and security with a simple formula: reward your friends and punish your enemies. To many, this formula is grounded in common sense. If authoritarian countries like the Iraq of Saddam Hussein, Iran, Cuba, and North Korea begin to behave as Washington wants, the U.S. should reward the regimes. If they do not, Washington should impose sanctions and isolate them from the international community. According to Ian Bremmer, a leading expert on states in transition and global political risk, this approach has not only failed to help Washington achieve its goals, it has produced policies that have had virtually the opposite of their intended effects. Now Bremmer offers a new geopolitical framework that offers insight into how more effective U.S. policies can be formulated.
In THE J CURVE: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall (Simon & Schuster; September 5, 2006; $26.00) Bremmer turns conventional wisdom on its head and presents a new way of understanding how decision-makers in any given country – including the most dangerous – define their national interests, the sometimes surprising choices they make, and the effects of those choices in a world of fast-paced, high-stakes instability. The lessons of the J curve show that the United States can guide the world to a realistic political balance and a healthier economic future, but only if our leaders finally realize that our foreign policy weapons of choice for dealing with “problem” nations – political isolation and sanctions – have consistently resulted in us acting against our own best interests.
What is the J curve? If you take a cross section of nations and measure each one’s stability in relation to its political and economic openness to the outside world, and then plot the resulting data points on a graph, the result is a curve shaped like a J. Nations to the left of the dip in the J are less open; nations to the right are more open. Nations higher on the graph are more stable; those that are lower are less stable. Movement from left to right along the J curve demonstrates that a country that is stable because it is closed must go through a period of instability as it opens to the outside world. According to Bremmer, in an era in which terrorists and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction threaten transnational upheaval, the risks created by this instability or by state failure – even in states once considered of marginal geopolitical importance – are unacceptably high. That is why it is more crucial than ever before that we recognize and effectively deal with the dangers implicit in these processes. Using scenarios that are playful and serious at the same time, Bremmer applies the lessons of the J curve to what is happening on the front pages of our newspapers every day. He draws these real world examples from more than ninety countries but specifically focuses on twelve in depth. Some are police states. Others are authoritarian regimes that are open to a limited extent, to outside political, economic, and social influences. Some of these states have faced chaotic instability. A few have built relatively stable societies based on open governance. In each case Bremmer offers a modest amount of history to explain our relationships with these countries and how they got that way. He reveals the special circumstances that make each foreign-policy challenge unique as well as the diversity of opportunities and dangers these states pose for the U.S. and the international community. And he explores how U.S. policymakers have approached these opportunities in the past and how they can better address them in the future.
With each of the countries featured in THE J CURVE Bremmer offers an innovative way to think about the uses of our power and lays down valuable guidelines:
- North Korea: Kim Jong-Il fears the North Korean people far more than he does any weapon in the U.S. arsenal. He knows that if they gain access to information and resources from the outside world, they will discover that their government has lied to them – about virtually everything. Through a policy of isolation, U.S. policymakers have helped Kim deprive his people of the tools they need to change North Korea from within (and guaranteed that Kim will never verifiably renounce his regime’s nuclear program.) Washington should actively seek out creative ways to connect North Korea’s citizens with the world beyond their borders.
- Cuba: More than four decades of U.S. sanctions on Cuba have punished ordinary Cubans and tightened Fidel Castro’s grip on power. The dictator is now 80 years old, and the question of succession looms. If U.S. lawmakers hope to empower Cuba’s people (rather than simply punishing them) and undermine Cuban communism, they should ease and then drop the U.S. embargo. In the process, the United States could help build a prosperous democratic Cuba and a new U.S.-Cuban relationship.
- Iraq: Following Saddam Hussein’s failed invasion of Kuwait in 1991, the UN imposed tough sanctions on Iraq. Saddam used the sanctions to control virtually all of the wealth entering the country and to finance domestic repression. The U.S.-enforced no-fly zones in the country’s north and south protected him from those who might have directly challenged his rule. The ongoing conflict in the country might never have developed had not U.S. policy helped Saddam isolate Iraq’s people.
- Iran: The greatest threat to Iran’s ruling reactionaries comes from millions of Iranian young people restless for social change. Iran’s government has intimidated domestic opposition, stolen what it cannot earn democratically, and used Washington’s shortsighted policy of isolation to further its own ends. U.S. policymakers should seize every opportunity to help Iranians pry open their society and manage the difficult transition toward future Iranian participation in global politics and markets.
- Saudi Arabia: Will Saudi Arabia become unstable if it reforms or if it doesn’t? The answer to both questions is “yes.” The current system is headed toward instability whether it reforms or not. But if managed change that gives the Saudi people a stake in a more promising future is not undertaken, a new, more radical Saudi regime, may well lash out and produce a political and economic shock from which the world will not soon recover.
- Russia: There is no tradition in Russia’s political life that establishes law as a safeguard for the individual against the state. In fact, the law that President Vladimir Putin studied at Leningrad State University taught him that laws are society’s best defense against the greed of the individual. If, Putin might ask, the government can’t use the law to rule Russia as it must be ruled, what purpose does it serve? Yet, the rule of law will play a crucial role if Russia is to replace its hunger for a strong president with its need for a strong presidency and resilient political institutions.
- South Africa and Yugoslavia: Nelson Mandela’s political and moral authority brought members of different racial, tribal, and ethnic groups together in a post-apartheid reconciliation project to show the world how strong and progressive a black African government could be. Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic’s opportunistic militarism set in motion the forces that pulled Yugoslavia apart. As Iraq’s newly elected leaders try to build a stable system of governance, Shia, Sunni, and Kurds will each assert their interests at the expense of central authority. As we watch developments in Iraq from the sidelines, the lessons of South Africa and Yugoslavia should not be far from our minds.
- Turkey: The U.S. government should do everything possible to urge Turkey to continue to meet the requirements for membership in the European Union and encourage the EU to welcome Turkey’s bid. Should Turkey’s efforts fail, Washington should vigorously reinforce America’s political and economic ties with Ankara to help ensure that the end of Turkey’s EU candidacy does not mean the end of its opening to the outside world.
- Israel: The true threat to Israel’s long-term stability comes not from without but from within. In the not-too-distant future, Palestinians may form a large enough segment of Israel’s population that a political bloc representing their interests will become a swing vote in Israeli politics – where it could be critical to the sustainability of coalition governance. This reality returns Israeli leaders to the nation’s primordial question: If Israel is to remain both a Jewish state and a democracy, how long can it avoid the necessary compromises for the establishment of a viable Palestinian state?
- India: India’s diversity and its history of open, multiparty democracy are its greatest source of stability. As it continues to open its long-dormant economy to the dynamizing forces of globalization, its influence on the world stage will grow. Cold War-era mistrust has limited U.S. engagement with the world’s largest democracy for many years, but the Bush administration has done a lot to build on Clinton-era efforts to improve the relationship. Stronger U.S.-Indian ties will serve the short- and longer-term interests of both countries.
- China: Will China’s remarkable economic liberalization generate prosperity and strengthen Communist Party legitimacy? Or will its increasing economic openness ignite popular expectations for political change that the Party cannot satisfy? Some in Beijing insist that political reform is out of the question and that authorities should meet every ten protesters with a thousand soldiers. Others believe modernization is the key to greatness, that political reform is inevitable, and that strong and healthy international relationships are paramount. U.S. policy-makers should do everything possible to ensure the latter group wins the argument.
Bremmer concludes THE J CURVE with a look at how nations with stable and mature governance can use the tools described in this book to help the citizens of authoritarian states begin to build dynamic open societies. He explores what happens when countries fall, or are pushed into the dip in the curve without being prepared to survive the instability that will inevitably follow. And he shows how right-side countries can help prepare left-side states for the transition. Bremmer also suggests that America risks losing the war on terror because it is repeating the mistakes of the war on drugs by focusing too much on the suppliers of terrorism in the Muslim world while doing relatively little to address the demand. He explains why the U.S. would be better served using the same strategy that allowed it to win the Cold War. And finally, Bremmer warns against the siege mentality that has caused some U.S. and European politicians to call for limits on immigration, keeping out some of the very people who might come to America, absorb Western values and ideas, and return with them to their own authoritarian countries. He writes, “If the vast majority of would be immigrants are denied access to the U.S., if the European Union demonstrates to the Muslim world that Europe is a Christians-only club, demand in the Muslim world for terrorism and Islamist authoritarianism will surely grow.”
About the Author
Ian Bremmer is president of the Eurasia Group, the world's largest political risk consultancy. His publications include New States, New Politics: Building the Post-Soviet Nations, and more than two hundred articles and essays in International Affairs, The Harvard Business Review, World Policy Journal, The New Republic, The New Statesman, Fortune, The Los Angeles Times, The Wall Street Journal, The International Herald Tribune, and The New York Times. He is a columnist for the Financial Times, a contributing editor at The National Interest, and a political commentator on CNN, FOX News, and CNBC. He lives in New York and teaches at Columbia University.
About the Book
THE J CURVE: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall
By Ian Bremmer
Publication Date: September 5, 2006
Price: $26.00
ISBN: 0-7432-7471-7<
For author photo, jacket photo, and excerpt, visit http://resources.simonsays.com or Email: Nicole.De.Jackmo@simonandschuster.com
For more information, visit www.jcurvebook.com.
Reviews
"With this timely book, political risk consultant Bremmer aims to 'describe the political and economic forces that revitalize some states and push others toward collapse.' His simple premise is that if one were to graph a nation's stability as a function of its openness, the result would be a 'J curve'...North Korea is perhaps the most disturbing example of the left side of the curve...Bremmer persuasively illustrates his core thesis without eliding the complexities of global or national politics."
– Publishers Weekly
“Ian Bremmer has come up with an smart, fresh way to think about how countries develop. His J-curve gets at the heart of a dynamic of change affecting large swathes of the world. A book well worth reading.”
– Fareed Zakaria, author of "The Future of Freedom"
“Bremmer convincingly argues that smart American diplomacy, harnessing the forces of globalization, can induce closed societies to open up without falling apart. Timely, thoughtful, and written with verve and clarity, this is an impressive work of analysis and prescription.”
– Strobe Talbott, president of the Brookings Institution, former deputy secretary of state
“For those who are looking for new ideas, concepts, and theories to develop a 21st century understanding of our 21st century global experience, Ian Bremmer’s The J Curve is quintessential reading.”
– Dan Burstein, author of "Big Dragon" and "Road Warriors"
“The J Curve is a fresh and useful way to examine the durability and stability of political systems that is essential to the formation of foreign policy. Bremmer’s book is a stimulating effort to get away from the stale and anachronistic notions of international relations that too often, and disastrously, shape foreign policy.”
– Brian Urquhart, former Under-Secretary General of the United Nations
“This book is a must-read, and not only for its insight into foreign policy. Individual institutions can be assessed on the J curve as well and their evolution similarly evaluated. A stunning analysis, notable for its depth, scope and clarity.”
– Vinton G. Cerf, Chief Internet Evangelist, Google
“Ian Bremmer’s groundbreaking book brings us an entirely new way to look at the world scene – to understand today’s worldwide political and economic problems and how to deal with them.”
– Thomas Pickering, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
“Make no mistake. This book should be required reading for any executive whose company invests in foreign economies or plans to do so.”
– Samuel A. DiPiazza Jr., Global CEO, PricewaterhouseCoopers
“The J Curve offers a new and interesting framework for understanding the internal dynamics of countries that are important, or dangerous, or both, and for thinking about how the United States can meet the formidable challenges involved in dealing with them.”
– Michael Mandelbaum, author of "The Case for Goliath"
“Bremmer provides a vital and compelling framework for viewing the world in a deeper, more complex, and ultimately far more intelligent and realistic light. Read it all, or study specific nations with its rubric, and you will come away worldlier – and wiser. If only our politicians would do the same!”
– Robert Buderi, co-author of "Guanxi"